May 2026 Market Update: The Market Is Finding Its Footing — Here's What That Means for You

Where the Market Stands Right Now

Hamilton recorded 542 total sales in May, down 11.0% from a year ago, while Burlington came in at 222 sales, down just 1.3% year-over-year. Those sales declines are real, but they need to be read alongside a very important development: new listings dropped significantly in both cities — Hamilton down 20.7% and Burlington down 21.2%. That means the pool of available homes is tightening rather than growing, and when supply falls while demand holds steady, you get the conditions that support pricing stability. That is the direction this market is heading.

Hamilton's average sale price came in at $755,202, down 3.3% year-over-year. That is a modest, measured correction — and when you look specifically at single-family homes, the average sits at $840,166, down just 2.1%. Detached homes are holding their value better than the broader market averages suggest. Burlington told an even more interesting story this month. The all-residential average rose 6.6% year-over-year to $1,205,121, with the single-family segment averaging $1,550,627. Burlington's detached market is showing genuine resilience, and that is worth paying attention to if the city has been on your radar.

Affordability continues to improve. Hamilton's Housing Affordability Index reached 61, up 7.0% from a year ago, and Burlington's townhouse and condo segment hit 60, up 15.4%. More families qualify for homes in both cities today than at any point in the recent cycle, and that underlying demand will continue to provide support as we head into summer.

Neighbourhood Spotlight: Dundas, Ancaster & Waterdown

These are the three areas I hear about most from clients right now, and each one is telling its own story this month. Here is what the data is showing on the ground.

What This Means for Sellers and Buyers

For sellers, the market still rewards the right approach. Homes that are priced accurately, presented well, and positioned competitively are generating strong results — and the data backs that up. Sellers across Hamilton and Burlington are receiving 97.7% and 97.9% of asking price respectively, which tells you that when a home is set up correctly, buyers respond. The sellers who are struggling are almost always the ones holding onto price expectations from a year or two ago. Price for today's market, present your home with care, and the outcomes are there.

For buyers, this is one of the more favourable environments we have seen in years. Affordability is better, inventory still offers choice in most segments, and sellers are more open to negotiation than they were 18 months ago. The neighbourhoods with tighter supply — like Dundas and Waterdown — require more urgency when the right property appears. But across the broader market, there is still room to be thoughtful, include conditions, and make a well-considered decision. And for anyone buying and selling in the same market, the move remains relative — what you give up on your sale, you tend to gain back on your purchase.

Looking Ahead to Summer

As we move into June and July, the market will naturally ease in pace as families shift focus to summer. That does not mean it stops — some of the best transactions of the year happen in the summer months simply because there is less competition from other buyers and sellers, and the people who are active tend to be genuinely motivated. The fundamentals heading into summer are solid: inventory is tighter than a year ago, affordability is better than it has been in the current cycle, and the data is pointing in the right direction.

What I will be watching closely is whether the tightening supply trend continues through June. If new listings stay constrained while buyer activity holds steady, the conditions for further price stabilisation are firmly in place. I remain cautiously optimistic about where this market is headed in the second half of the year, and I look forward to sharing that picture with you next month.